How to Survive the Commoditization of Specialty Coffee (suggestions)

“Sourcing the best quality beans and roasting them to perfection” — how many coffee roasters do you know who defined themselves like that? Are you one of them?

I want to turn the question the other way around. In a world where everyone has access to the same high-quality green coffee and the same smart roasting AI technology, how do we actually make a coffee brand mean something?

Or let me put it another way: How do we survive the commoditization of specialty coffee?

There are quite some changes coming in the near future, and some of them are already here. I don’t think we are quite ready for them. I still see baristas and roasters talking about the same old problems, moving forward the same old goals (like competition or owning a roastery), while we are about to have some very new ones. Very new problems. Or better said, an industry changing in a way that most of us are not ready to see yet.

In this post, I will list the current and future challenges from my point of view. I will probably write about some of them in detail later. Right now, I will try to exaggerate each one, taking it to the extreme, in a hope that what actually happens is something in between—and just to give you and me some food for thought.

So what do we have on the menu? Without any particular order:

1. The Perfect Worker: Barista-Robots and Automatic Vending

The robot-barista. The automatic coffee machine. It is a perfect worker if you stop to think about it for a moment. It doesn’t come late to work, doesn’t demand attention, doesn’t have personal problems, doesn’t demand a higher salary or extra benefits, and doesn’t dream of being anything else but what it already is—a coffee serving machine.

If the recipes are adjusted well and the coffee is stable, there are no issues. You will say it already exists and we still need humans because it "tastes better." Tastes better for now.

Let’s imagine that coffee preparation is outsourced to the machine. The machine adjusts the grind size, the pressure, the tamping, analyzing every shot done (something already implemented in Eversys). What is the role of the baristas after that? It is an uncomfortable question because, to adapt, we have to drop the belief that we are impossible to substitute.

So where do we go?

• The Generalist: Baristas are forced to come back to the concept of doing everything in the shop, not just "making coffee."

• The Ultra-Niche: The barista becomes a very niche, luxury profession. Place for very few.

• The Technician: Baristas learn about these automatic machines and become technicians, analysts, or consultants. But this requires dropping the dream of “I just want to become better at making coffee.”

2. The Broken Career Ladder

If your dream is only to make coffee and become a better barista, I have bad news for us.

Coffee will soon suffer from a shortage of qualified professionals because the usual ladder—Barista -) Cafe Owner/Roaster -) Green Coffee Importer—is breaking. If becoming a barista means simply pressing a button, there is no motivation for the bottom of the ladder to learn. Extra hard to be motivated when you don't have difficult challenges or clear career path.

What will become more important is the human aspect of the work: the ability to connect with people, empathy, and personal touch. Things that a robot cannot provide.

3. AI Roasting and the End of the "Master"

“There is no future for no one in standing in front of the manual coffee roasting machine.”© a friend of mine, roaster.

For better or for worse, the era of 100% manual labor in coffee roasting is coming to an end. Brands are implementing AI curve prediction and automatic profiles, giving the owner more control. Are they functioning perfectly? No. But things will happen faster than we expect, and soon the romantic vision of a roast master smelling the beans while standing in front of the drum will belong to the past.

An automatic machine provides more stability than a roast master with less than 5 years of experience. Why would a business owner not save that money? You either hire someone with huge experience or buy an AI-powered roaster, hire someone to configure it, and a machine operator to press buttons.

The Price of Inexperience: For a long time, we sold coffee roasted by people who were "learning." We ended up with the idea that Kenya should taste like vegetable soup—and we told people that was "terroir." No, it was just the taste of lack of experience. AI will fix that, but it will also kill the "junior roaster" role.

4. Market Saturation: The "Perfection" Trap

There are just way too many players saying the same thing: “roasting carefully sourced beans to perfection.” This is market saturation. When it becomes even easier to get an AI machine and start roasting, we will see many roasteries closing down.

Once again. If all of us have the same access to the same beans and technology, what differentiates one brand from another? Those who work with volume will get better prices. While the amount of players is growing, is the consumption growing? Is the consumer being overlooked?

The Survival Kit: What to Do Now

I will stop with the "dooming prognoses" and offer some points to focus on:

1. Invest in Ongoing Education: Not just "coffee" education. Learn about business, pricing, and the economics of the coffee chain.

2. Double Down on Sensory: Machines repeat curves, but we roast beans, not curves. Make sure your sensory skills are so sharp you can pick up on inconsistencies that the AI missed. A consistent palate is your biggest competitive advantage. Until we have machines that know how to do it cheaper.

3. Learn the Technology: The future is coming. If you don't know how to work with AI roasters and automatic brewers, they are coming for you.

4. Optimize the Costs: Know very well how much it costs to roast a kilo - and how much it will cost to sell this kilo of coffee and to who - before you even turn the machine on, or even think about getting a machine in first place.

5. Disconnect from the C Market: If you can plan your coffee one year ahead and build real relationships with partners, you are winning.

6. Retain, Don't just Acquire: Before you spend money to find a new client, invest in keeping the one you already have.

Is specialty coffee becoming more niche or more commoditized? I see both happening at once.
Let´s figure out what’s next, and be prepared!