Price, Quality, and Flavor in Coffee: Why There Is No Direct Correlation
Imagine: You are in a coffee shop choosing between a 95-point Geisha from Panama (whatever that means for you) and an 86-point Caturra from Colombia. The first coffee costs €21 per V60. The second? €7.
What will you choose? What will you expect to taste? And more importantly—how happy will you be with your choice?
I’m using a coffee shop as an example, but this applies to everyone in the chain. Maybe you are a roastery owner or head roaster planning your green coffee purchases for the year. You see two coffees; one is five times more expensive than the other.
The questions stay the same:
If a coffee costs 5x more, will it taste 5x better?
Will it attract 5x more attention from the customer?
Will it make me 5x more satisfied, surprised, or happy?
Well… Too many expectations for one poor simple bean, right?
The Brain’s Obsession with Numbers
The topic is complex. My intention with this article is to convey that no, there is no direct correlation. I want to explore why we think there is, and why we still expect it—even as coffee professionals.
Our brain likes to simplify. It loves to draw conclusions and create connections where they possibly don't even exist. It makes life easier. When you throw numbers into this mess—like cupping scores, FOB prices, or Farmgate prices—our brain becomes ecstatic.
Numbers feel like proof. They feel scientific and solid, even when we have no idea how they were composed or who collected them.
Pricing vs. Quality: The Production Reality
We often fall into the trap of seeing coffee as a commodity, even when we think we don’t. We expect quality to be directly tied to flavor complexity because we view coffee as a somewhat uniform mass.
But coffee is not uniform. There is a simple economic fact: Producing a certain quality in Country A versus Country B costs the producers very different amounts of money.
Please pay attention: The exact same quality—let’s say an 86-point coffee—requires a completely different investment from a farmer in Colombia versus a farmer in Brazil or Ethiopia.
Why Prices Vary
Factors that have nothing to do with flavor:
Labor costs: Availability and qualification of workers.
National Currency: Exchange rates against the US Dollar.
Inputs: Price and availability of fertilizers.
Infrastructure: Logistics, port access, and container availability.
(If you want to dive deep into this, read Cheap Coffee by Karl Wienhold.)
If an 86-point coffee from Peru costs the same as an 86-point coffee from Brazil, someone is likely losing money. The price is a reflection of the supply chain, not just the sensory experience.
Perceived Value and the "Marketing" of Points
Then we have the concept of perceived quality. Some origins, varieties, or processing methods have a higher demand.
The market tests how much a customer is ready to pay.
Has the coffee become more complex because the price went up? No.
Will it cost more? Yes. Because in this case, what is being sold is not just the quality itself, but a story, a rarity, or a trend.
What Does "86 Points" Actually Mean?
Let’s talk about those points. First, I want to mention that I am from the relatively "old school"—I got my Q Grader Certificate back in 2019. I operate with the traditional cupping scores, not the new CVA (Coffee Value Assessment) ones.
If you look at a SCA cupping form, you will notice two things:
Complexity is only one parameter: Flavor and complexity are just a small part of the total score.
The form is a professional tool: It requires training and calibration. Or at least discussion between the participants. (CVA form does not require that, you can give it to your grandmother and she will be able to rate the coffee according to her liking, which is one of the benefits of this form).
If I tell my grandmother a coffee is "86 points," she gets nothing out of it. If I tell a coffee professional it’s an "86-point washed coffee," they can imagine the quality, the cleanliness, and what that coffee can be used for.
Defect Punishment vs. Clean Quality
A score without a scoresheet is dangerous. Is this a "clean" 86? Or is it a 92-point masterpiece that was punished for a sensory defect? Those are two very different coffees that should be priced and used differently.
Is a more complex coffee better than coffee with medium complexity?
Better for whom?
The market currently hunts for high-intensity, "funky" profiles. I love clean, washed 85–87 point coffees, but the market isn't chasing them right now. Does that make them lower quality? No.
Satisfaction: Expectations vs. Reality
What am I leading to?
Remember the situation where it all started? You are in a coffee shop, choosing between a 95 point geisha, and 86 point caturra, looking if you spend 21 or 7 euros for a V60.
Depending on your expectations and your background, on how the sale is made by the staff, you may have very different experiences with the same two coffees.
You know what is geisha and this coffee meets or exceeds your expectations
You do not know what a geisha is, and coffee is blowing your mind.
You do not know what a geisha is, and coffee seems like nothing special,
You are looking for comfort, and know that caturras in Colombia can be very very tasty.
You cannot afford spending 21 euros on a V60, so you order a cheaper one, and it seems plain and not complex at all.
If you are expecting 21 be 3 times better than 7 - and because that sort of complexity does not exist, you get disappointed.
Simplified, the satisfaction comes from meeting or exceeding expectations.
How the expectations are formed matters. From how you are shaping your expectations, or your customer expectations, depends will the product or service likely make them happy or disappoint them.
We need to make peace with the fact that price is a reflection of effort and economics, while flavor is a reflection of biology and craft. They meet in the middle, but they are not the same thing.
In other words, if I can give you one suggestion, it would be to stop expecting numbers to tell you how much you will enjoy a cup, and start looking at the system behind the coffee.
